Forecasting Pendapatan UMKM: Strategi Tiga UMKM Unggulan di Kalurahan Hargorejo Dalam Kontribusi Terhadap Kalurahan Hargorejo, Kapanewon Kokap Kulon Progo Menggunakan Metode Arima
DOI:
10.54443/sinomika.v2i1.906Published:
2023-05-31Downloads
Abstract
This research aims to forecast the income of MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises), namely Batik Ngudi Rejeki, Geblek Mbak Yuni, and Better Snack in Hargorejo Village, Kapanewon Kokap, Kulon Progo using the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) method. MSME income data from 2019 to 2022 is used in this analysis. The ARIMA method is used to identify patterns and trends in revenue data, as well as predict future earnings. The results of the ARIMA analysis show forecasting the income of MSMEs Batik Ngudi Rejeki, Geblek Mbak Yuni, and Better Snack in the contribution of the Hargorejo, Kokap, Kulon Progo Villages for the 2023 period. The results of this forecasting can provide insight into the development of MSME income in the future and become a reference for business owners in more effective business planning, decision making, and strategy development. The data used is historical data on MSME income in a time series, where the process is analyzed using statistical software Eviews 12 to produce an accurate forecasting model.
Keywords:
MSMEs income forecasting ARIMAReferences
Adiwinansa, P. R. 2015. Strategi Pengembangan UMKM Gula Semut di Desa Hargotirto Kecamatan Kokap Kabupaten Kulon Progo. http://anjasmara.uny.ac.id/Record/eprints-14113
Afendi, A. 2022. “Kinerja Perusahaan Di Usaha Mikro Kecil Dan Menengah (UMKM): Systematic Literature Review.” Jurnal Wacana Ekonomi 21 (3): 177–94.
Aprilia, D. I. 2021. “Analisis Peramalan Penjualan pada UMKM Pia Paguntaka Kota Tarakan”. Skripsi. Jurusan Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Borneo Tarakan.
Indonesia. Undang-Undang Nomor 20 Tahun 2028 Tentang Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah. Lembaran Negara RI Tahun 2008 Nomor, Tambahan Lembaran RI Nomor 4866. Sekretariat Negara. Jakarta.
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Repbulik Indonesia. 2022. Perkembangan UMKM sebagai Critical Engine Perekonomian Nasional Terus Mendapatkan Dukungan Pemerintah. Oktober 1. Diakses, 30 Mei 2023. https://www.ekon.go.id/publikasi/detail/4593/perkembangan-umkm-sebagai-critical-engine-perekonomian-nasional-terus-mendapatkan-dukungan-pemerintah.
Ramadani, Aghnia, and B R Arfida. 2017. “Analisis Efisiensi Usaha Mikro Kecil Menengah Gula Merah Di Desa Sumberingin Kecamatan Sanankulon Kabupaten Blitar.” Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE 1 (1): 44–60.
Ismail, Andri Herlambang. 2021. “Sosialisasi Metode Forecasting Dalam Meramalkan Penjualan Produk UMKM.” Publidimas 1 (1): 57–63.
Prasetyo, A. 2019. “Peran dan Dampak Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia.” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis 22(1): 1-13.
Simanjuntak, M. 2020. “Peran dan Kontribusi Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) terhadap Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia.” Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ekonomi 2(2): 83-91.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. 2015. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics.
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Muhammad Thoriq Afris Suryono, Rose Tania Aulia, Elizabeth Novtaputri, Riyan Bakhtiar
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Downloads
How to Cite
