ANALISIS DETERMINAN NILAI TUKAR DI INDONESIA
Main Article Content
Qarina
Nilai tukar merupakan persoalan yang kompleks dengan banyak dimensi yang dihadapi seluruh negara. Nilai tukar yang stabil menjadi indikator pertumubuhan ekonomi. Nilai tukar suatu negara harus dijaga tingkat kestabilannya karena jika nilai mata uang mengalami pelemahan dalam jangka yang lama maka akan mempengaruhi sisi impor yang nantinya akan mempengaruhi pertmubuhan ekonomi pada negara tersebut. Otoritas moneter memegang peranan penting dalam menstabilkan nilai mata uang. Penelitian ini mencoba untuk melihat determinan nilai tukar dengan menggunakan variabel inflasi, suku bunga, dan cadangan devisa menggunakan data sekunder dan teknik analisis regresi linear berganda. Adapun hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini adalah variabel inflasi mempunyai hubungan negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar, variabel suku bunga dan cadangan devisa mempunyai pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar.
Aghion, Philipe, Philippe Bacchetta, Romain Ranciere, and Kenneth Rogoff. 2009. “Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier 56(4):494–513.
Aizenman, J., and J. Lee. 2005. “International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence.” NBER Working Paper 11366.
Bacchetta, P., and E. van Wincoop. 2003. “Why Do Consumer Prices React Less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?” Journal European Economic Association 1(2–3):662–70.
Ball, C. P., and J. Reyes. 2008. “Inflation Targeting or Fear of Floating in Disguise? A Broader Perspective.” Journal Macroeconomic 30(1):308–26.
Benigno, G., and P. Benigno. 2008. “Exchange Rate Determination under Interest Rate Rules.” Journal of International Money and Finance 27(6):971–93.
Burstein, A., and G. Gopinath. 2014. International Prices and Exchange Rates . Handbook International Economic.
Calvo, G. A., and C. M. Reinhart. 2002. “Fear of Floating.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(2):379–408.
Calvo, Guillermo A., Carmen M. Reinhart, and Carlos A. Vegh. 1994. Targeting in the Real Exchange Rate: Theroy and Evidance. Washington D.C:
Canetti, Elie, and Joshua Greene. 1991. Monetary Growth and Exchange Rate Depreciaton as Causes of Inflation in Africa Countries: An Empirical Analysis. Washington, DC:
Chow, H. K., and Y. Kim. 2006. “Does Greater Exchange Rate Flexibil- Ity Affect Interest Rates in Post-Crisis Asia?” Journal of Asian Economics 17(3):478–93.
Domaç, Ilker, and Alfonso Mendoza. 2004. Is There Room for Foreign Exchange Interventions under an Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey.
Dooley, Michael. P., David Folkerts Landau, and Peter. M. Garber. 2004. “The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for A Total Return Swap.” NBER Working Paper 10727.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stuzenbegger Federico, and Wolf Holger. 1990. “Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilisation.” Brooking Papers on Economic Activity (2):1–64.
Egwaikhide, Festus O., Louis N. Chete, and Gabriel O. Falokun. 1994. “Exchane Rate Depreciation, Budget Deficit and Inflation-The Nigerian Exprerience.” AERC Research Paper 26.
Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. 1990. Inflationary Process, Stabilisation and The Role of Public Expenditure in Uganda. Washington, D.C:
Engel, C., D. Lee, C. Liu, and S. P. Y. Wu. 2019a. “The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules.” Journal of International Money and Finance 95:317–31.
Engel, C., D. Lee, C. Liu, and S. P. Y. Wu. 2019b. “The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules.” Journal of International Money and Finance 95:319–31.
Engel, C. M. 1986. “On the Correlation of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates.” Journal of International Money and Finance 5(1):125–28.
Flood, R. P., and O. Jeanne. 2005. “An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?” Journal of International Economics 66(2):471–84.
Galí, J. 2001. Targeting Inflation in an Economy with Staggered Price Setting .
García, Carlos José, and Jorge Enrique Restrepo. 2001. PRICE INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN CHILE.
Ghosh, A. R., A. M. Gulde, J. D. Ostry, and H. C. Wolf. 1997. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?
di Giovanni, J., and J. C. Shambaugh. 2008. “The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime.” Journal of International Economics 74(2):341–61.
Ha, Jongrim, M. Marc Stocker, and Hakan Yilmazkuday. 2020. “Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” Journal of International Money and Finance 105. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102187.
Hacker, R. S., H. K. Karlsson, and K. Månsson. 2014. “An Investiga- Tion of the Causal Relations between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials Using Wavelets.” International Review of Economics & Finance 29:321–29.
Hao, Z. Z. 2015. “An Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate and the Link- Age Mechanism of China-US Interest Rate.” Financial Forum 1:35–40.
Harbeger, A. 2004. “Economic Adjusment and the Real Exchange Rate.” University of Chicago Press (10):308–21.
Hnatkovska, V., A. Lahiri, and C. A. Vegh. 2013. “Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate: A Non-Monotonic Tale.” European Economic Review 63:68–93.
Hoffman, M., and R. MacDonald. 2009. “Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Present Value Interpretation.” European Economic Review 53(8):952–70.
Husain, A. M., A. Mody, and K. S. Rogoff. 2004. “Exchange Rate Regime Durability and Performance in Developing Versus Advanced Economies.” Journal of Monetary Economics 52(1):35–64.
Ito, T., and K. Sato. 2008. “Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” Journal Money Creedit Bank 40(7):1407–38.
Kamas, Linda. 1995. “Monetary Policy and Inflation under the Crawling Peg: Some Evidance from VARs for Colombia.” Journal of Developmen Economies 46(1):145–61.
Kamin, Steven B. 1996. Exchange Rates and Inflation in Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization: An Empirical Examination. 554. Washington, DC.
Khan, George A. 1989. The Output and Inflation Effects of Dollar Depreciation. Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Kim, H., and W. Shi. 2018. “The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China.” Journal of Policy Modeling 40(2):395–417.
Li, X. P., Y. Feng, C. F. Wu, and W. D. Xu. 2013. “Response of the Term Structure of Forward Exchange Rate to Jump in the Interest Rate.” Economic Modelling 30:863–74.
Liu, Tie Ying, and Chien Chiang Lee. 2022. “Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Interest Rate Policy.” International Journal of Finance and Economics 27(3):3531–49. doi: 10.1002/ijfe.2336.
London, Aslem. 1989. “Money, Inflation and Adjusment Policy in Africa: Some Further Evidance.” African Development Review 1(1):87–111.
Lubik, T. A., and F. Schorfheide. 2007. “Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4):1069–87.
Mayuresh Gokhale, By S., J. v Ramana Raju, Mayuresh S. Gokhale α, and J. v Ramana Raju σ. 2013. “Causality between Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Indian Context.” Type: Double Blind Peer Reviewed International Research Journal Publisher: Global Journals Inc 13.
McCarthy, J. 2007. “Pass-through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrtialized Economies.” Eastern Economic Journal 33(4):511–37.
Meese, R., and K. Rogoff. 1988. “Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period.” Journal of Finance 43(4):933–48.
Mehrotra, A. N. 2007. “Exchange and Interest Rate Channels during a Deflationary Era—Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China.” Journal of Comparative Economics 35(1):188–210.
Mirchandani, Anita. 2013. “Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 3(1):172–79.
Montiel, Peter. 1989. “Empirical Analysis of High-Inflation Episodes in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel.” IMF Staff Papers 36(3):527–49.
Odedokun, Mattew O. 1996. Dynamics of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Foreign Inflation; Official and Parallel Market Exchane Rates; and Monetery Growth. Dundee, Scoltland:
Odusola, A. F., and A. E. Akinlo. 2001. “OUTPUT, INFLATION, AND EXCHANGE RATE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN APPLICATION TO NIGERIA.” The Developing Economies XXXIX(2):199–222.
Roberts, J. 1995. “New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 27(4).
Saeed, Ahmed, Rehmat Ullah Awan, Maqbool Sial, and Falak Sher. 2012. AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE IN PAKISTAN.
Simon, W. L. S. 1997. “Is There Life Outside the ERM? An Evalution of the Effects of Sterling’s Devaluation on the UK Economy.” International Journal of Finance and Economics (2):199–216.
Stančík, Juraj, and Cerge-Ei. 2006. DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: THE CASE OF THE NEW EU MEMBERS Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility: The Case of the New EU Members *.
Tang, X., and J. Zhou. 2013. “Nonlinear Relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence from China and Korea.” Journal of International Money and Finance 32(1):304–23.
