PREDICTIVE POLICING: THE FUTURE OF CRIME PREVENTION CASE STUDY OF CHILDREN BRAWL IN THE JURISDICTION OF THE SOUTH JAKARTA METRO POLICE

This study aims to describe brawls that occur in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police, identify correlations that are the factors that influence the prevention of brawls in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police, reveal the practice of preventing child brawl crimes through the implementation of predictive policing that occurs in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police. This research is descriptive qualitative using a case study research type. The findings revealed that brawls occurred under the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police from 2019 to 2021, indicating that attempts to avoid brawls by the South Jakarta Metro Police have had minimal effect because there has been an increase every year and can only prevent 7 acts of brawl. Factors that have caused the prevention of brawls in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police to be less effective because they have weaknesses and threats/obstacles they face. Concerning the weaknesses, there are aspects of the quantity of human resources, aspects of the quantity of facilities, and aspects of work methods at Satbinmas (Community Development Unit) and Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police, which carry out preemptive (door to door system patrol activities, and FGD) and preventive (walking patrols, motorized patrols, and monitoring through CCTV), while the aspect of a lack of budget is for Satbinmas, which carry out pre-emptive (door to door system patrol activities, and FGD).


INTRODUCTION
The Special Capital Region (DKI) of Jakarta is the capital city of the Republic of Indonesia which is currently growing rapidly in development in various fields, both as a center of economy, politics, culture and government. Along with the development of this development, on the other hand DKI Jakarta faces various social problems such as illegal settlements and slums, crime, especially conventional crime groups (theft with violence, murder, rape and so on), prostitution, brawls, drunkenness and others. There are also contingency problems caused by humans which are disturbing events and cause fear or trauma to the community due to disruption of security and public order (Kamtibmas), so that they have the potential to hinder community activities. Problems that can arise unexpectedly, such as brawls, anarchist protests, riots, and so on, almost always result in losses, both in terms of lives lost and material lost.
The brawl that took place in DKI Jakarta is not a novel social issue. Nonetheless, social problems have existed for a very long time. The fights that happened, particularly in South Jakarta, became a problem that disrupted the surrounding environment's security and order. As of now, brawls involve not just students but also gangs/thugs/community organizations and residents. Moreover, these brawls occurred not just in the neighborhood or surrounding region, but also on public roadways, and it was not unusual for public facilities to be harmed. This conflict has consequences for society as a whole, as well as for some of the parties involved. These conflicts frequently result in loss of life (minor injuries, serious injuries, and deaths), material (facilities and money), and time (congestion arises).
In connection with the rise of brawls, especially between students in South Jakarta, the South Jakarta City Government Education Sub-agency was deemed not anticipatory by the National Coordinator of the Indonesian Education Monitoring Network (JPPI) Ubaid Matraji who considered that the Education Sub-Department (Sudin) Education should have a prevention program that is currently In fact, the anticipation has not yet been seen, such as assisting schools and involving the participation of all stakeholders in the context of prevention (Bustomi, 2022).
So far, efforts to prevent student brawls can be said to be carried out if they have their own initiative, as was done by the South Jakarta Metro Police, which once had a flash boarding school program that prioritized Vocational School and High School, where brawls often occurred. Each as many as 10 people from each school (Marison, 2020).
Another pre-emptive effort by the South Jakarta Metro Police is to carry out visitation (sambang) activities which are carried out every year. Based on the provisions of Article 1 paragraph (12) of the Republic of Indonesia National Police Regulation (Perpol) Number 1 of 2021 concerning Community Policing (Polmas) that Sambang is an activity of visiting and communicating with certain communities with a door to door system. In its implementation it is carried out by the Binmas Unit, in particular by Bhayangkara officers who supervise community security and order (Bhabinkamtibmas) as stated in the provisions of Article 8 of the Regulation of the Head of the Indonesian National Police (Perkap) Number 7 of 2021 concerning Bhayangkara who foster public security and order.
The efforts made in preventing student brawls in a preemptive manner above include: First, spiritual coaching instilling good values/norms, and knowledge about the impact of student brawls for students themselves, society, parents, schools and careers future. Second, counseling regarding the importance of community participation in protecting the environment and security, because of student brawls and others. Third, increase interaction and exchange of information. Fourth, facilitating solving minor cases and disputes between students.
While related to early detection efforts in the framework of preventing brawls, the implementation is carried out by the Security Intelligence Unit (Satintelkam) of the South Jakarta Metro Police. Efforts to optimize early detection in the framework of preventing brawls are carried out in various ways, including deploying members of the East Jakarta Metro Police's Satintelkam to locations prone to brawls before the hour when brawls are prone to occur, monitoring mass movements on the highway online and realtime CCTV and others.
In addition to preemptive efforts, the South Jakarta Metro Police also carries out preventive efforts by carrying out patrols during the day and at night by the Samapta Bhayangkara Function Unit (Sabhara) at certain locations and times that are prone to brawls. Most of the role of Satsabhara South Jakarta Metro Police in handling the brawls because at the time of the brawls, Satsabhara immediately went to and arrested the perpetrators of the brawls.
The last effort taken is repressive action by prioritizing law enforcement, especially against the perpetrators of brawls who carry sharp weapons as well as the perpetrators of brawls which cause victims, both material and mental casualties. The perpetrators of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police over the past 3 (three) years are predicted to reach hundreds of people and 198 perpetrators who have been arrested (given warnings and counseling), of which 114 are the children of the brawlers. However, only a few perpetrators of brawls were punished, namely 36 people, of which 12 were children. In handling children who are in conflict with the law, it is carried out through 2 (two) channels, namely: first, through legal channels as many as 4 (four) people. Second, through diversion of 8 (eight) people.
Contemporary policing which is seen as effective in dealing with brawls by prioritizing prevention efforts, being proactive, looking for problem solving, building partnerships, becoming a security icon and providing a sense of security. A great police officer is not only capable of uncovering numerous crimes or apprehending offenders, but also of preventing crimes from occurring. This is in accordance with the program of the Head of the Indonesian National Police (Kapolri) General Police Listyo Sigit Prabowo, namely the National Police which is Predictive, Responsible, Transparency and Justice (Precision) and has 16 priority programs to implement. As an actualization in realizing a Precision Police, the National Police Chief seeks to build a Precision Police through the 16 Chief of Police Priority Programs, among them are the Strengthening of Kamtibmas Maintenance Performance and Changes in Modern Police Technology in the Police 4.0 Era. Therefore, the National Police, especially the South Jakarta Metro Police, must be able to make good use of information technology and improve their capabilities in order to realize the Maintenance of Public Security and Order (Harkamtibmas).
Crime prevention can be done by predicting an event in the context of preventing crime by the police or it is called predictive policing. According to Bratton et al. (2009) predictive policing is a policing strategy or technique that uses data or information as well as advanced analysis towards forward-thinking crime prevention or policing action. However, the essence is an effort to police action from data, analysis, forecasts, and action. Predictive policing can also work involving stakeholders so that crime prevention can be more optimal.
Based on the brief description of the background, the main issues in this study are: "that child brawls do not only go through the law enforcement process which will only go through the diversion mechanism, juvenile justice which does not provide a deterrent effect on the perpetrators of child brawls so efforts need to be made to resolve them through predictive policing which is developed by prioritizing Harkamtibmas through implementing police functions with a prediction system?" Formulation of the problem 1) What is the description of the brawl that occurred in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police?

Crime Prevention Concept
Steven P. Lab in his book entitled Crime Prevention, Approach, Practices and Evaluations explains that crime prevention is the implementation of police functions at the preemptive and preventive levels (what stands out in this activity is the presence of uniformed police, both individually and as a unit and the role of the police as protectors and provide protection and services to the community. Preemptive and preventive measures are taken to prevent violations of the law. These actions aim to prevent criminal behavior from occurring because if criminal behavior can be prevented, then the law in society can be upheld. The traditional policing model focuses attention to aspects of investigation and prosecution within the framework of "crime control", by putting the aspect of crime prevention on the second priority (Lab, 2014).

Cooperation Concept
Cooperation can also be said as a grouping that occurs between people who support each other to achieve a consensus result (Johnson, 2014). Based on some of definitions, cooperation can be concluded that cooperation is a sense of desire that is the same as other people and carrying out actions or activities carried out together to find solutions to achieve goals.
Conceptually, a cooperation is defined as a long-term partnership between two or more organizations with the intention of achieving certain business goals in order to maximize the effectiveness of the resources of each participant (Mangkunegara, 2005). This definition requires mutual understanding because it requires a shift from traditional relationships to a culture of sharing regardless of organizational boundaries. This relationship is of course based on trust, 4 (four) dedication to common goals (objectives), and understanding of each individual's expectations and values. The purpose of a partnership is to achieve better results, by providing mutual benefits between partners, covering each other, adding to each other, and mutual benefit (mutualism).

RESEARCH METHODS
The type of research used in this study was qualitative which has a descriptive tendency to use analysis. In this study the authors used a type of case study research. There were several key informants or research subjects in this study from the South Jakarta Metro Police internally and externally, namely the community. The data sources in this study were: First, primary data or people's thoughts or opinions consist of elements of the leadership, elements of implementing the main tasks, and elements of society. Then the events that occurred in law enforcement against brawls. Second, secondary data, namely the study of documents / archives such as basic intel of the South Jakarta Metro Police, reports on the results of brawl prevention activities such as sambang activities (visitation) and counseling guidance and cooperation data with several parties, law enforcement data on brawlers, personnel data, facilities data, budgets and others related to brawl prevention activities against brawlers.
The data collection technique used by the authors in this study consisted of several data collection techniques including Document Studies, Interviews, Observations. The stages of data analysis are similar to the water model, namely: collecting raw data (library, observation, interview transcripts), coding (marking important data points for further processing by coding), categorization, sorting into concepts / certain categories or topics related to each chapter / sub-chapter (Wulan, 2021).

RESULT AND DISCUSSION Analysis description of the brawl that occurred in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police
Based on research data regarding the issue of the depiction of brawls that occurred in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police, then analyzed as follows.
In Indonesian Dictionary, the definition of brawl is a crowd fight or mass fight. The definition of a brawl can be interpreted that a brawl is not a conflict between individuals. However, brawls can be caused by conflicts between individuals. This can be seen from the main motive for the occurrence of brawls in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police, the majority of which began with conflicts between individuals or grudges, then became conflicts between masses.
The brawls that occurred within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police for the last 3 (three) years in the 2019-2021 period show that efforts to prevent brawls by the South Jakarta Metro Police have had no effect. This can be seen from the level of occurrence of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police in 2019 as many as 15 incidents, then in 20120 it increased to as many as 18 incidents, and in 2032 brawls again increased to as many as 24 incidents.
Several factors increased the fighting, especially those carried out by thugs/community organization and between residents, including because most of the basic needs were getting more expensive, jobs were difficult, low income from work, especially during this period, including during the Covid-19 period, while brawls by student actors were due to students only take part in online learning 19, so students are out of control who often gather with school dropouts and drink alcohol.
The factors mentioned above are actually in line with the record for the percentage of poor people in South Jakarta City in the 2016-2020 period according to data from the South Jakarta BPS (2021: 101-102) which has a tendency for the percentage of poor people to decrease, but in 2020 it will increase the number of poor people from the previous year. The percentage of poor people in South Jakarta City in 2020, which is 3.43 percent, is the largest number in the last 5 years.
Indeed, the mode of brawls is almost the same as the usual brawls, namely using sharp weapons (knives, machetes and swords) and blunt weapons (stones and wood). Brawls often occur at night or in the early morning, while during the afternoon and evening brawls are usually carried out by students/young people/adolescents. There were 57 incidents of brawls that occurred within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police in the last 3 (three) years. The prevention of brawls by the South Jakarta Metro Police is seen as less effective because it can prevent 7 acts of brawls. In this case, the areas most prone to brawls are in the Kebayoran Lama, Tebet and Cilandak Subdistricts which need serious attention from the South Jakarta Metro Police. In which area, is a brawl that falls into the conflict category between residents, mass organizations and students/youths/adolescents.
The perpetrators of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police for the last 3 (three) years are predicted to have reached hundreds of people. Of the perpetrators who were secured, it was carried out by men and the majority were teenagers. However, only a few perpetrators of brawls were punished. The leadership of the South Jakarta Metro Police provides a policy that action will be taken against the perpetrators of brawls if a crime occurs, in other words, brawls that cause the victim to be seriously injured or suffer material loss that cannot be replaced by the perpetrator or the victim does not want to resolve it amicably. However, if there is no crime, a warning and counseling will only be given.
Regarding the data on the characteristics of the child as the perpetrator of the brawl, it is not available, be it age, school level, place of incident, time of incident and name of the school because of the child's age, so it is not recorded given the Law on Child Protection. According to the author perspective, this should be available because it is for internal consumption by the South Jakarta Metro Police, especially in tackling brawls committed by children, so that the data is used as material by the South Jakarta Metro Police to predict future brawls.
From several brawl actors interviewed by the author, the view is that brawls are commonplace. The phenomenon of brawls gathering and drinking alcohol often ends with these brawls becoming a culture for students because apart from the hobby factor, they are also given a bad label by the people in their environment. On the other hand, residents around the brawl felt disturbed, so some reported the activity to the police and some were apathetic. This is reminiscent of a general and systematic theory of sociopathic behavior or deviant behavior by Edwin M. Lemert in (Darmawan & Purnianti, 1994). Further, Lemert as quoted in (Suchar, 1978) believes that a systematic theory of social pathology or deviant behavior must be clearly formulated as general characteristics of the symptoms of the behavior and shows the involvement of social factors appropriately in the actualization of the behavior. Deviations are caused not only by cultural conflicts, but moreover by the intensity of social reactions to various deviations and sociopathic behavior which is socially unacceptable behavior (Darmawan & Purnianti, 1994). While Frank Tannenbaum says that juvenile delinquency and the formation of deviant subcultures are the result of the "joint action" of certain delinquents, and various community control agents that act against them in various ways (Darmawan & Purnianti, 1994). According to Frank Tannenbaum, criminality and juvenile delinquency are seen as normal reactions to certain life situations and problems. Tannenbaum also emphasized the role of "habituation" in a certain way of life. Learning to become a deviant involves a socialization process in which stimulation instructions, approval, togetherness, lifestyle conversations that the deviant himself begins to define as normal in his daily life (Darmawan & Purnianti, 1994).

Analysis of the factors causing the prevention of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police to be less effective
As already explained, the prevention of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police is seen as less effective because it can only prevent 7 acts of brawl. As for several factors that influence it according to several assessments of informants and the views of the authors are described as follows.

1) Internal Factors
First, HR. In this HR aspect, there are strengths and weaknesses. The human resources in question are the human resources at Satbinmas (Community Development Unit) and Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police who carry out pre-emptive and preventive brawl activities. In general, the quality of human resources in the two Functional Units is a strength because they are adequate and can carry out almost according to the target every year and have the ability to carry out activities according to SOP. Like what Bhabinkamtibmas did in carrying out door to door patrol activities with a variety of different approaches such as taking the initiative to contact the Head of the RT/RW and residents before carrying out door to door patrol activities, seeking job vacancy information and providing job vacancy information to the residents they visited (house occupants). The way of communication of Bhabinkamtibmas is also carried out quite well, this is seen from how to communicate informatively, using good language, clear, straightforward and mastering the messages conveyed related to Kamtibmas messages including the causes and effects of brawls.
The target for door-to-door patrol activities is 20 times each year, and Bhabinkamtibmas has carried out according to the target in 2019 and 2021 a total of 20 activities, while in 2020 there were 16 times with a record in April and May the budget be not absorbed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Likewise, the FGD activities which have a target of 10 times and have been carried out according to the target in the last 3 years. Then the walking patrol and motorized patrol activities have a target of a minimum number of activities of 100 activities in a year, this target number has been achieved by South Jakarta Metro Police Satsamapta personnel in the last 3 years.
Quantitatively, this is a weakness from the HR aspect because when viewed from the number of residents in South Jakarta City, of course this target is very minimal due to the consideration of the minimum number of personnel, namely as many as 15 personnel, so that South Jakarta has a population recorded in 2021 reaching 2,226,864 people, while the number of sub-districts is 65 sub-districts. Therefore, the way to eliminate it is by changing the target of FGD activities to 1 time per year and minimizing meetings with Tomas and Toga. Apart from that, the number of Bhabinkamtibmas and Satsamapta needs to be added to these activities and it is necessary to apply rewards for outstanding personnel such as proposing personnel to take part in Dikjur and punishments for personnel who do not carry out their duties or are not on target.
Second, means. In this aspect there is strength in terms of the quality of the facilities owned by Satbinmas (Community Development Unit) and Satsamapta in carrying out door to door system patrols, walking patrols, Motorized patrols and mass monitoring via CCTV at the South Jakarta Metro Police TMC. On the other hand, in terms of quantity, it is inadequate, especially transportation equipment, CCTV, DVR, hard disk. In fact, to support the successful implementation of Polmas, brochures are not available, so it is not in accordance with the provisions in Article 30 of Perkap Number 3 of 2015 concerning Polmas which states that 17 types of facilities are needed.
The most important types of facilities but not yet available are the types of facilities for communication media, namely Kamtibmas brochures, visit stickers and name cards. A visit sticker affixed to the glass or on the front door of a resident's house is useful as proof of a visit, so it is useful if at any time to check directly with the leadership. Brochures which are written or printed media that can be reviewed repeatedly and stored as documentation, so that residents do not easily forget messages/information conveyed by Bhabinkamtibmas during dialogues. Bhabinkamtibmas only gave messages/information orally including in providing the cell phone number of the South Jakarta Metro Police Chief and the cell phone number of the Bhabinkamtibmas officer.
Third, budget. Regarding the door to door patrol activities, the strength is that the door to door patrol activities are supported by a separate operational budget from the agency which is given at the beginning of the month in the amount of IDR 1.100.000 or every month to the Bhabinkamtibmas. They are given the freedom to use the operational funds for the benefit of door-to-door patrol activities, including in approaching community members. However, the operational budget for each Bhabinkamtibmas is considered inadequate considering that door to door patrol activities require quite a lot of fuel due to the high population in the City of South Jakarta. On the other hand, there are other Binmas activities such as Binredawan, gathering of community leaders and others in their respective assigned areas. As previously explained, to eliminate this weakness, it is necessary to minimize other activities in other Binmas activities or it is necessary to propose an increase in the budget, including for member incentives and supported by the South Jakarta Metro Police Chief. In contrast to the activities of walking patrols and Motorized patrols by Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police which have been supported by an adequate budget both operationally and for member incentives. Fourth, method or work system. The strength is related to the method or working system of Bhabinkamtibmas activities which not only conducts door-to-door patrol systems to prevent brawls, but also conducts FGDs, distributes cell phone numbers from the Police Chief to members to the community, Fridays around to give Kamtibmas messages, form Pokdarkamtibmas and carrying out cooperation with related agencies for example the South Jakarta Social Service and forming FKPM with community members as many as 14 FKPM. These activities are included in the elements of partnership in Polmas, but only the main components involved, namely the National Police, the community and local governments, while the supporting components in Article 14 of Perkap Number 3 of 2015 there are several pillars of polmas NGOs / CSOs, mass media, scholars / academic community, and others have not been established.
The community is not only the object of policing activities, but together with the police carry out police activities. With Polmas, the police and the community are combined in the FKPM (Police and Community Partnership Forum) together to identify problems, plan activities and implement them. In this case; the relationship between the police and the community is not for a hierarchical relationship between the police who appear to be the "mandatory giver" (subject) and community members as "order takers" (object), especially in the mobilization model, but rather a "partnership relationship". That is, relationships that build cooperation on shared awareness starting from the stages of identifying problems and preparing plans as well as the stages of implementation and guidance to evaluation.
Building Polmas village means implementing a community-oriented policing model in community life. The application of this model means that members of the public carry out limited police functions, emphasizing partnerships with local police unit officers (Polmas Officers) and trying to solve problems; in this case overcoming problems, both crime and disturbance of security and public order as well as improving the quality of life of the people from the security aspect. The embodiment of the operationalization of the police function thus makes the life of the community in the village a Polmas village life, a village that makes the community the police for themselves and their environment.
The rules regarding Polmas are not explicitly formulated in the Law on Villages, but the substance of the management of security and order by the village community has actually been accommodated, including: (1) The village community has the right to protection and protection from disturbances of peace and order in the village; (2) the village community is obliged to encourage the creation of a safe, comfortable and peaceful situation in the village; (3) Village Development priorities, programs, activities and needs are formulated based on an assessment of the needs of the Village community for improving the quality of order and peace in the Village community; (4) Inter-Village cooperation in the field of security and order.
The existence of Polmas as a village social institution is actually implicitly regulated in the Law on Villages. Therefore, whatever form and form the management of security and public order within the scope of the community has succeeded in obtaining support from the Village Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBDes). With this support, the partnership of the three pillars of Polmas: the National Police (Polmas Officer), the community (FKPM)
The operationalization of Polmas also requires the participation of supporting components, such as universities, business people, mass media, and others. According to their respective capacities, they can play a role, both in supporting the operationalization of Polmas in their village/kelurahan area and in developing the implementation of Polmas in an area. Businessmen, for example, are involved in finding solutions to employment problems or youth activity programs, considering that the perpetrators of terrorism come from weak economic factors.
The Community Policing (Polmas) concept of making crime prevention the main strategy for crime prevention is clearly not just crime prevention such as through village patrols or the Environmental Security System (Siskamling) which has been practiced so far in village/village community life. Even before the big days, the people of Siskamling are often positioned as the object of the competition, not long after the commemoration is over, many of which then disappear, because it's just an engineering trick. In practice, what happens is that the turn to be a patrol officer is no longer based on equality, but in a paid way and gradually it is carried out with a regular paid work system. Crime prevention includes broader and even comprehensive efforts. These efforts must be aimed at the root cause of security disturbances.
The law enforcement process through Polmas can be done in a more lenient manner by using a familial approach. For example, when the perpetrators of brawls are arrested, the police do not always have to punish the suspect. With the Police function,Brawl prevention strategies can be carried out through steps such as counseling, visits, dialogues, early detection, identifying residents' problems, accommodating residents' aspirations and complaints. Polmas officers must also be able to establish communication and build strength with elements of the Village government, Village Trustees (TNI), religious/community/youth/women leaders.
Meanwhile, several activities carried out by Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police have weaknesses, such as walking patrols and Motorized patrols due to official hours, so the distribution of 3 shifts cannot be carried out due to a lack of personnel, while brawls often occur at night and early in the morning. Article 10 This activity is actually in accordance with Perkabaharkam Polri Number 1 of 2017 concerning Patrols, it is known that patrols can be carried out by: walking, rollerblading, segway, motorized bicycles, water transportation, animals, air and other transportation.
Regarding CCTV monitoring activities at TMC, operator shift changes are only carried out 2 (two) times starting from 07.00 to 15.00 and 15.00 to 11.00 because every day 1 (one) personnel alternates carrying out other activities, while 3 personnel monitor the CCTV situation and in the media social. On the other hand, the installation of CCTV at the point where the CCTV is placed is too high and a bit far from the main road, thus affecting the range of monitoring, especially if you want to see an object closer. This can also affect the monitoring activities carried out by operators.

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SIBATIK JOURNAL | VOLUME 2 NO.2 (JANUARY 2023) https://publish.ojs-indonesia.com/index.php/SIBATIK Weaknesses in the system or working methods for these activities can be eliminated by utilizing Pokdarkamtibmas members and FKPM members who are CCTV users at TMC by being able to access monitoring online (real time) via cellphone and reporting to operators or to Bhabinkamtibmas officers and or Samapta officers if this occurs an event that looks suspicious will initiate a brawl. This is because if you only rely on the admin operator it is impossible to run optimally. Admin operators cannot always focus on monitoring mass movements on CCTV because boredom will inevitably arise, so they carry out other activities even though they are still in the TMC room such as carrying out other work or even watching YouTube, chatting, playing games and so on. In addition, it is necessary to install the right location point of the area prone to brawls.

2) External Factors
External factors here are opportunities and threats/obstacles which include: cooperation/partnership, motives and modes of brawl actors, society, geography and demography.
First, Cooperation. In order to prevent brawls, we don't only rely on CCTV to find information, but also rely on various parties because there is cooperation with Pokdarkamtibmas, FKPM, and support from the South Jakarta Social Service which helps the community, in this case parents of children to get jobs. However, not all of the South Jakarta Metro Police form partnerships with all sub-districts in South Jakarta, so the South Jakarta Metro Police need to establish partnerships with all sub-districts in South Jakarta. Muspika is a pillar of Polmas (Article 14 paragraph (4) letter a Perkap Number 3 of 2015 concerning Polmas) which is a stakeholder that supports the successful implementation of Polmas in local/local communities (Article 1 paragraph (8) Perkap Number 3 of 2015 concerning Polmas). This also remembers that Polmas is an Indonesian-style CP that cannot be separated from the basic principles of CP, one of the principles of which is to develop good relations with other relevant government agencies. This is very important because the police and government agencies both have responsibility for problems that exist in society. All of these roles can be realized through redefining the role of the police in the context of solving problems and organizing society (Muhammad, et al, 2017).
Meanwhile, with regard to schools that are less assertive towards students who are involved in brawls and rarely socialize regarding the ban on brawls, they need to be invited to work together in the form of partnerships and given an understanding that stopping student brawls can also be beneficial for schools because in the end, people, especially parents, want to register their children in school. The school itself feels safe, if the school where students often fight can affect the desire of parents to enroll their children in the school. Thus, this is in accordance with the concept of cooperation which can be carried out through the form of partnership, a partnership is a form of alliance between several parties who cooperate on the basis of agreement and a sense of mutual need to achieve certain goals. (Mangkunegara, 2005).
Second, the motives and mode of the perpetrators of the brawl. Partly related to motive because it comes from individual problems such as challenging on social media because of the debate over the discussion of an issue in the comments column on a forum or social media group, so this is difficult to track, especially if it is in a direct message or direct message (DM). what needs to be done by the operator admin is to do a search using keywords (tags) on social media such as the keywords attack, brawl, duel, challenging and other aggressive words.
Third, Public. Related to the prevention obstacle because the community is too fanatical about things related to SARA and is easily instigated by issues that are developing without tracing the truth, what needs to be done is to increase visiting activities/counseling guidance/patrol door to door system to provide enlightenment to society in order to raise legal awareness.
Fourth, geography and demography. This aspect is seen as influential due to the vast geography of South Jakarta in each sub-district, and the large number of South Jakarta, making it difficult for door to door patrols, walking patrols, and motorized patrols, while the budget, facilities and human resources of the South Jakarta Metro Police are limited. As previously explained that other activities need to be minimized or increased the number of personnel and budget for these activities and maximize the use of CCTV in TMC.

Analysis of child brawl crimes prevention through the implementation of predictive policing in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police
The South Jakarta Metro Police have made various efforts to prevent the crime of brawls committed by children that occurred within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police. Activities are carried out by carrying out extension guidance through door to door patrol systems, FGDs with public figure and religious figure, collaborating or establishing partnerships with FKPM, Pokdarkamtibmas, and the South Jakarta Social Service. This is called primary prevention or included at the preemptive level as according to Lab (2014) is an activity to identify physical conditions and the social environment that allows for opportunities to or accelerate the occurrence of crimes. As for what is included here is environmental management, environmental monitoring, general prevention, personal security, education about crime and crime prevention. Crime prevention efforts that are implemented with the aim of avoiding becoming a victim of crime are an effective means of reducing crime rates and fear of crime.
While the activities of walking patrols, motorized patrols, and CCTV monitoring at TMC by Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police are secondary prevention or include preventive level. Secondary prevention according to Lab (2014) is a direct action in early identification of people who have the potential to commit crimes and intervene before the actions of official officials who supervise illegal activities. Implicitly in secondary prevention is the ability of society and the criminal justice system to correctly identify and predict problems that will arise. Despite the criticisms about the ability to predict behavior, many interventions describe their clients with research that uses predictions.
Prevention of child brawls through the implementation of predictive policing that occurs within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police has been implemented but has not been optimal, so that the prevention of child brawls has only succeeded 7 times in the last 3 years (2019 to 2021), while there were 57 brawls that occurred in that period. This is because the South Jakarta Metro Police do not utilize data that should be obtained easily because the South Jakarta Metro Police handle children as perpetrators of brawls.
Because of the age of the child, data on the characteristics of children who are the perpetrators in conflicts are not available. This includes data on the children's ages, school levels, locations of the fights, times of the fights, and the names of their schools. This is not documented since there is a law in place that protects children from abuse and neglect. In author perspective, this should be available because it is for internal consumption by the South Jakarta Metro Police, especially in dealing with brawls committed by children, so that the data is used as material for study by the South Jakarta Metro Police, whether there is a pattern that forms an order in the brawl action useful for predicting future brawls, so that appropriate action can be taken to prevent brawls, especially those committed by children. This is because the crime is done repeatedly which forms data that can be studied. The pattern of these criminal acts is then expected to occur in the future by law enforcement officials for prevention because the future is like the past (Bennett Moses & Chan, 2018).
If the prevention of fights by the South Jakarta Metro Police is tied to the theory of predictive policing by Tayebi et al. (2017) who has 4 (four) estimates, and according to (Ferguson, 2017)there are 4 things that need to be considered in predictive policing, they can be described as follows: 1. predicting offenders, the prediction of the occurrence of a crime by the perpetrator is seen from the perpetrator's historical data. Forecasts from the historical data of the brawl perpetrators, of course, need to have complete data such as data on the characteristics of the child as the brawler, be it age, number of times the brawl occurred, school level, place of incident, time of incident and name of the school. 2. Predicting victims which predicts that someone will likely become a victim.
The victim here is a student/child who is expected to be an opponent in a brawl. In other words, schools or groups of students/children who often become opponents in brawls or have been passed down from generation to generation by their seniors.

Predicting criminal collaborations or predictions of cooperation by several criminals.
Related to the prediction that cooperation will occur is the root cause of individual problems involving groups, so there is the potential for brawls to occur which usually start with bullying/extortion or beatings. Cooperation is not only between students of different classes, but also involves other people or other groups who are not in the same school or who are not in school.

Predicting crime locations which is the approximate place of crime
Predicting the location of the crime does not always mean the location of the brawl, but also the location where the children who will fight will gather. This is important to note so that the chances of preventing a brawl are greater when compared to just estimating the location of a brawl. 5. Estimated target to someone This target means individuals who frequently engage in brawls, either those who often instigate brawls or are the leaders of brawls for their friends. 6. Policing actions are carried out on a place-based basis Place-based policing measures are intended to carry out prevention activities to the location where brawls occur or where children who are going to brawl gather. 7. Observations and investigations are carried out in real time Observation and investigation in real time can be carried out through patrol activities to locations prone to brawls or direct monitoring via CCTV. 8. Policing style or action taken over the interpretation of digital data.
Policing actions carried out on the interpretation of digital data, in this case, are work procedures in preventing brawls, starting from extracting data on the perpetrators of the brawls, the location of the brawls, when the brawls occurred, who was involved, etc., which are then taken direct preventive measures. by going to the location and dissolving the children who will fight.
Predictive policing is related to social mapping and socio-technological police audits. According to Chairil (2022:15) there are 5 (five) steps to social mapping of the community as follows: 1. Choose and determine the object of analysis.
Selection of the target problem must be based on rational considerations in the sense that the reality being analyzed is a problem that has social significance and is in accordance with the vision or mission of the organization.
The prevention of child brawls by the South Jakarta Metro Police is carried out for the maintenance of Kamtibmas, so that the community becomes safe and orderly. Brawls need to be prevented because the impact causes material and mental losses, both those involved in brawls and those who are not involved in brawls, especially those at the scene of the incident. 2. Collection of supporting data or information.
To be able to analyze the problem as a whole, it needs to be supported by complete and relevant supporting data and information, both through mass media documents, observation activities and direct investigations in the field. Data or information checks are absolutely necessary to test the validity of the data.
Collecting data on the characteristics of children who are involved in brawls, be it age, number of times the brawl occurred, school level, place of incident, time of incident and name of the school, etc., needs to be carried out by the South Jakarta Metro Police. 3. Develop perception.
After identifying various aspects that affect or are involved in the problem, then the perception of the problem is developed according to an objective perspective. At this stage several possible implications of the consequences of the problem object will appear, as well as the development of several alternatives as a follow-up framework. The data obtained is then used as material to be studied by the South Jakarta Metro Police, whether there is a pattern that forms an order in these brawls that is useful for predicting brawls in the future. 4. Draw conclusions.
At this stage conclusions have been obtained about the root of the problem, which parties are involved, the parties who benefit and lose, the consequences that arise politically, socially and economically as well as the paradigm of action that can be taken for the process of social change.
If there is a pattern that forms an order in the action of the brawl that is useful for predicting the action of brawls in the future, so that appropriate action can be taken to prevent brawls, especially those carried out by children.
According to Chairil (2022:15) Technology Audit is a systematic and objective evaluation carried out by technology auditors on technology assets to achieve technology audit objectives so as to provide added value and improve the performance of the party being audited or the stakeholder. Meanwhile, a socio-technology audit is needed as part of a continuous improvement effort. When the resources or technology assets owned by an organization need to be optimized. In order to provide accurate input for technology planning, so that repetition of errors can be avoided. The police socio-technological audit has objects that must be determined in the framework of the audit, and if it is related to the prevention of child brawl described as follows: 1. Identify who the user or operator is As previously explained, it is necessary to involve Pokdarkamtibmas members and FKPM members who are CCTV users at the TMC by being able to access to monitor online (real time) via cellphone and report to the operator or to Bhabinkamtibmas officers and or Samapta officers if there is an event that looks suspicious, they will carry out a brawl. Because relying just on the administrator operator makes it impossible to run optimally. Admin operators cannot always focus on monitoring mass movements on CCTV because boredom will inevitably arise, so they carry out other activities even though they are still in the TMC room such as carrying out other work or even watching YouTube, chatting, playing games and so on.
Furthermore, in supporting the CCTV system, the infrastructure owned for TMC operations that use computer-based equipment requires a specific integrated system. Data processing to be converted into information is what is expected to make the TMC system able to optimally support command, control, communication and information functions and of course this is influenced by the quality and quantity of supporting devices in the CCTV system.

Use of equipment or transportation
The use of CCTV is to monitor mass actions, in this case, masses who are children and have the potential to fight. While transportation in this case is the Motorized which is used in door to door patrol activities by Bhabinkamtibmas as well as Precision Motorized patrol activities carried out by Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police. The amount of both quantity and quality is something that needs to be paid attention to.

Technical specifications
Technical specifications, especially in monitoring mass actions through CCTV at TMC, actually have good technical specifications because they include outdoor cameras (water and hot weather resistance) and can be done online and can be accessed via a smartphone anywhere and anytime. 4. Technical problems encountered in the use of equipment or transportation.
Technical problems so far in the use of CCTV and vehicle actually do not exist because they are in good condition, so they can support performance in the context of preventing brawls. 5. Equipment maintenance or transportation problems.
Likewise in the case that virgins do not have problems or problems encountered, so that they can support performance in the context of preventing brawls. 6. Evaluate its use.
Evaluation of the effects of the brawl prevention activities by the leadership of the South Jakarta Metro Police, but so far there have been weaknesses because the South Jakarta Metro Police leadership has only evaluated the target number of other activities in preventing brawls. Even though the principle aim of preventing brawls is to give effect to the community members so that there is a change in attitude, opinion or behavior among the community members by not engaging in brawls. Hence, the leadership of the South Jakarta Metro Police should not only evaluate their activities, but also evaluate the effects that occur after carrying out several activities to prevent brawls within a certain time on a regular basis. This can be done by looking at brawl data, reports on prevention activities, data on the characteristics of the perpetrators of the brawl and others. The results of this comparison and analysis are used for evaluation materials or to improve further strategic efforts in child fighting prevention activities.

CONCLUSION
The research questions that the authors have discussed can be summarized as follows.
1) The brawls that occurred in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police during the period 2019 to 2021 show that efforts to prevent brawls by the South Jakarta Metro Police have not had much effect because there has been an increase every year and can only prevent 7 acts of brawl. Judging from the level of occurrence of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police in 2019 there were 15 incidents, then in 20120 it increased to 18 incidents, and in 2032 brawls again increased to 24 incidents. Several factors increased the increase from external because the majority of basic needs were increasingly expensive, employment was difficult, income was low from work especially during this period including during the Covid-19 period, while the brawls by student actors because students only take part in online learning 19, so that students are out of control who often gather with school dropouts and drink alcohol. The main motive for the occurrence of the majority brawl begins with conflict between individuals or grudges, then becomes conflict between masses. While the modus operandi is carried out during the day, evening, night and early morning. 2) Factors that have caused the prevention of brawls in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police to be less effective because they have weaknesses and threats/obstacles they face. Regarding the weaknesses, there are aspects of the quantity of human resources, aspects of the quantity of facilities and aspects of work methods at Satbinmas (Community Development Unit) and Satsamapta South Jakarta Metro Police which carry out preemptive activities (door to door system patrol activities, and FGD) and preventive (walking patrols, motorized patrols and monitoring through CCTV), while the aspect of the lack of budget is for Satbinmas (Community Development Unit) who carry out preemptive activities (door to door system patrol activities, and FGD). While the external threats/obstacles are aspects of cooperation with the local government and schools that are not well established, 3) Prevention of child brawl crimes through the implementation of predictive policing that occurs in the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police is not implemented optimally because it does not utilize data on the characteristics of children as perpetrators of brawls, be it age, number of times brawls, school level, place of incident, time of incident and name school. The data obtained is then used as material to be studied by the South Jakarta Metro Police, whether there is a pattern that forms an order in these brawls that is useful for predicting brawls in the future. Furthermore, if there is a pattern that forms a regularity in the brawl action which is useful for predicting future brawls, so that they can do the right thing to prevent brawls, especially those carried out by children. The South Jakarta Metro Police only relies on data on locations prone to brawls and uses several strategies by carrying out several preemptive and preventive activities.
The suggestions that can be given in relation to the results of this study are as follows: 1) Regarding data on the characteristics of children as perpetrators of brawls that are not available, be it age, number of times the brawls took place, school level, place of incident, time of incident and the name of the school, in the future the South Jakarta Metro Police Satsamapta must collect data and establish coordination with the Metro Police Satreskrim South Jakarta to obtain data related to children who are in conflict with the law as the causality of fights. These data need to be in the form of hardcopy or softcopy and stored properly so that they are easily obtained or accessed. This data can be used as material for predicting future brawls. Meanwhile regarding pre-emptive activities such as extension guidance which is viewed slightly through door to door by Bhabinkamtibmas it is necessary to increase the number of activities every year and the number of activities is targeted by the South Jakarta Metro Police Head of Satbinmas (Community Development Unit). This is intended so that people can gain knowledge of the causes and effects arising from brawls and build community legal awareness. 2) In connection with the factors that have caused the prevention of brawls within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police to be less effective, especially regarding the minimal target number of door to door patrol activities, it is necessary to change the target of FGD activities to 1 time per year and meeting activities with Tomas and Minimized toga. In addition, the number of Bhabinkamtibmas and Satsamapta needs to be added to these activities and it is necessary to apply rewards for outstanding personnel such as proposing personnel to take part in vocational education and punishments for personnel who do not carry out their duties or do not meet the activity target. Meanwhile, regarding the inadequate budget and facilities, KaSatbinmas (Head of Community Development Unit) needs to submit an Activity TOR and RAB to the South Jakarta Police Chief to increase Satbinmas (Community Development Unit) budget and facilities so that during door-to-door patrols they can provide Kamtibmas brochures, visiting stickers and name cards and provide incentives for Bhabinkamtibmas officers.
Regarding cooperation in the form of partnerships, it is necessary to form partnerships with the Regional Government, in this case, sub-districts throughout South Jakarta, the South Jakarta Metro Police Chief needs to coordinate with the Mayor of South Jakarta to make it easier to form partnerships. Furthermore, regarding the weaknesses of the system or work methods in CCTV monitoring activities, Kasatsampta needs to review the determination of the existence of users in monitoring mass actions by utilizing Pokdarkamtibmas members and FKPM members who can access to monitor online (real time) via cellphone and report to the operator or to Bhabinkamtibmas officers and/or Samapta officers if an event that looks suspicious occurs will take a brawl. 3) Prevention of child brawls through the implementation of predictive policing that occurs within the jurisdiction of the South Jakarta Metro Police needs to be optimized by Satsampta by collecting data on the characteristics of children who engage in brawls and combined with data on locations prone to brawls, data on locations where children who are suspected of having brawls gather, information obtained from CCTV and information obtained on social media. Furthermore, it is predicted and takes appropriate action decisions to prevent brawls that will be carried out by children. The South Jakarta Metro Police Chief also needs to evaluate the effects of the brawl prevention activities by the South Jakarta Metro Police leadership, but so far there have been weaknesses because the leadership of the South Jakarta Metro Police has only evaluated the target number of other activities in preventing brawls. Even though the principle aim of preventing brawls is to give effect to the community members so that there is a change in attitude, opinion or behavior among the community members by not engaging in brawls. Therefore, the leadership of the South Jakarta Metro Police should not only evaluate their activities, but also evaluate the effects that occur after carrying out several activities to prevent brawls within a certain time on a regular basis. This can be done by looking at brawl data, reports on prevention activities, data on the characteristics of the brawlers and so on.